Understanding Latin America
Dear readers and colleagues, this month we bring you our Netpicks selection with five articles that reflect the reality in Latin America today, one each from: Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Haiti, and another about the region’s expanding oil frontier.
This will be the last newsletter of the season, as we take a summer break for the month of August, but a fresh email with the most important news from Latin America will reach your inbox in October.
- Venezuela Gears up for Elections
- Ecuador on the Brink
- Military interference and political decay in Bolivia
- Give Peace a Chance in Haiti
- ‘Will you stop exploring yours?’: Latin America forges ahead on new oil frontier
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VENEZUELA GREARS UP FOR ELECTIONS
The situation in Venezuela following the recent elections is complicated, to say the least. On July 28, Venezuelans went to the polls to elect a new leader, which ended with Nicolás Maduro declaring he was re-elected into office. The results have been highly contested by the right-wing, however, who also claim to have their own results that show their victory. The government hasn’t shown evidence of their results, while protests and repression take over streets of Venezuela. Left-wing presidents of the region, like Colombia, Mexico and Brazil, have been pushing to find a kind of negotiated solution, while the United States, among others, have already declared opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez the country’s new president. Prior to the elections, however, tensions were already running high. Here, the author sets the scene in the days and weeks leading up to the vote, which explain the heated reactions from both sides. The decision to hold elections in 2024 was made in Barbados in 2023, when not only the government and the opposition agreed to hold free and fair elections, but also the United States. The US, hungry for Venezuelan oil, partially lifted sanctions on the country when the deal was signed, but tensions rose when President Maduro banned the main opposition candidate María Corina Machado from running. Nevertheless, both the opposition and the government seemed confident of victory, but both sides faced their own challenges.
Tobias Lambert, July 22, 2024
https://www.rosalux.de/en/news/id/52338/venezuela-gears-up-for-elections
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ECUADOR ON THE BRINK
Ecuador was once known for its progressive constitution and recognizing the rights of nature, but recently it has experienced more setbacks and failures than achievements. The country has been making headlines for the spike in uncontrollable violence and insecurity, as well as large-scale emigration from the country. In order to understand these setbacks, the author explains, we have to look at the shifts in Ecuador’s recent political history. The first important shift was the fall of the government of Rafael Correa, who took office in 2007 on a progressive platform, but by the end of his second term in 2017, he lost major support due to accusations of corruption, authoritarianism, and his conservative views on family and women’s rights. Second was the rise of the right wing post-Correa, and the turn to neoliberal policies. Third, has been the militarization of the country and rise of authoritarian actions by the current President Daniel Noboa. Finally, the current efforts of progressive parties to unite against neoliberal and iron fisted right-wing policies, which is fraught with obstacles, as the left continues to be hard a hard ideology to define in Ecuador since Correa’s downfall. In the upcoming 2025 elections, is there hope for Ecuador to reverse its current path?
Martha Moncada Paredes, July 3, 2024
https://www.rosalux.de/en/news/id/52273/ecuador-on-the-brink
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MILITARY INTERFERENCE AND POLITICAL DECAY IN BOLIVIA
On June 26, an enigmatic military action took place in Bolivia that appeared to be an attempted coup to oust President Luis Arce. But to really understand what happened, we need to look at the real state of Bolivian society and the powerful role of the armed forces there today, says the author. Though the coup attempt ended quickly, the media was quick to release a series of contextless facts that supported one of two narratives, either the “coup/fraud” or the “coup/self-coup” debates. Both of these narratives, however, have been distractions from the real issue: the fact that the armed forces have become the cornerstone of a political scene defined by a broken federal government and a weakened social fabric. Bolivia is in the midst of a deep economic crisis that has grown more intense in recent months with shortages of foreign currency, difficulties in acquiring fuel, labor precarity and the increased cost of basic foodstuffs. The country is also suffering from a kind of political breakdown, with a divide in the ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, between factions loyal to Evo Morales and those loyal to Arce. The one things that remains stable is the military budget, which the government cannot cut because “the balance of power resides in that institution,” say officials. Is the Bolivian state in heading into decay?
Huáscar Salazar Lohman, July 5, 2024
https://www.ojala.mx/en/ojala-en/tanks-and-political-decay-in-bolivia
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GIVE PEACE A CHANCE IN HAITI
On June 25, a Kenya Airways plane touched down in Port-au-Prince, Haiti with some 200 Kenyan police, the vanguard of the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission approved by the United Nations Security Council late last year. Eventually, the force is expected to consist of 2,500 officers from at least a half dozen countries who will be tasked with restoring security and clearing the way for free and fair elections, in a country wrought with extreme violence, corruption and little faith in politicians. This is not the first time foreign troops have landed in Haiti with the intention of stabilizing the country; but instead of learning lessons from the past, boots have hit the ground in Haiti with a number of questions left unanswered and lack of a clear strategy. There are no clear rules of engagement, no announced accountability or oversight mechanisms, nor even a concrete timeline. It is not apparent who, ultimately, will be in charge. Perhaps the biggest question is: what will be the actual strategy to deal with the nearly 200 armed groups that have been terrorizing the population? Will an iron fisted approach really work? The author calls for a meaningful dialogue with various sector of society, most importantly the armed groups themselves. But how to make that happen is a whole other challenge.
Jake Johnston, July 10, 2024
https://cepr.net/give-peace-a-chance-in-haiti/
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‘WILL YOU STOP EXPLORING YOURS?’: LATIN AMERICA FORGES AHEAD ON NEW OIL FRONTIER
In the early 2000’s, several Latin American countries expanded their oil production, capitalizing on the high market prices at the time, to gain a semblance of economic independence. Today, amid fears of the climate crisis and international pressures to step away from the “black gold,” the oil rush is underway again. At least 16 of the 33 Latin American and Caribbean countries are involved in about 50 major new oil and gas onshore and offshore projects. Two new powerhouses, Brazil and Guyana, are expected to register two of the three largest increases in fossil fuel exports by 2035. Non-Opec countries are strengthening their foothold in the oil and gas market, playing a crucial role in the shifting geopolitics of oil and gas worldwide. This article is the first of a series in The Guardian featuring stories from across the region about these dynamics, namely how the battle between environmentalism and the need for economic independence, which at the moment can only be provided through extractive activities, is being played out in countries like Guyana, Ecuador, Chile, Brazil and Argentina.
Andrei Netto, July 8, 2024
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/article/2024/jul/08/will-you-stop-exploring-yours-latin-america-forges-ahead-on-new-oil-frontier
